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Growing concern, Projected increase of CO2 emissions from trade related international freight. CO2 emissions,from freight 30 of all transport related. CO2 emissions from fuel,combustion,CO2 emissions from global freight. transport are set to increase fourfold, Growth in international trade has been more empty runs and increased demand for rapid. characterised by globalisation and the associated energy intensive transport such as air freight As. geographical fragmentation of international freight transport whether by air land or sea. production processes Supply chains have become relies heavily on fossil fuel for propulsion and is. longer and more complex as logistics networks link still a long way from being able to switch to cleaner. more and more economic centres across oceans energy sources it is one of the hardest sectors to. and continents Changing consumer preferences decarbonise. and new manufacturing requirements also affect, international trade and thus shape freight patterns The long term impact of global trade on carbon.
This has led to more frequent and smaller freight dioxide CO2 emissions has been largely ignored. shipments and as a result to less full containers International trade contributes to global CO2. CO2 emissions,Freight Freight, emissions mainly through freight transport The trade related freight transport are estimated to be. International Transport Forum ITF estimates 2 108 million tonnes Mt and could rise to. that international trade related freight transport 8 131 million tonnes under the baseline scenario. currently accounts for around 30 of all transport, related CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and A nearly fourfold increase would seriously. more than 7 of global emissions undermine climate goals Assessing how changing. trade patterns will affect future CO2 emissions, Projections based on the ITF s International Freight is important in establishing whether policies are. Model foresee an increase of trade related freight aligned across the supply chain to achieve climate. transport emissions by a factor of 3 9 to 2050 change mitigation objectives. In the base year 2010 global emissions from, The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade OECD ITF 2015 3. Trade Projections,Production,consumption,Freight mode.
Projections on 19 product groups Includes multimodal routes. future global 26 zones Includes economic profile, trade in value terms 294 centroids Includes direct borders. covering 2 539 cities trade agreements,The approach. From global trade value to international, Standard projections of future global trade are model assigns the transport mode sea air road. expressed in value terms and do not take account rail used for trade between each origin destination. of the physical transport activity involved The ITF pair by product group The model is calibrated using. International Freight Model projects international European and Latin American data on trade by mode. freight transport activity and related CO2 emissions for different products and also takes into account. up to 2050 under alternative trade liberalisation travel time and distance between trading partners. scenarios The model expresses future trade in value as well as the existence of trade agreements and a. and volume in USD tonnes and tonne kilometers land border between trading countries. and assigns freight volumes to actual routes by, transport mode thus also enabling the calculation Third a weight to value model calibrated again. of related CO2 emissions with European and Latin American trade data on. value weight ratios for different commodities, The starting point of the ITF model is OECD is applied to obtain freight volumes from trade.
projections for international trade at the level of 26 projections Again the model takes into account. regions and 19 product groups To obtain a realistic travel time and distance trade agreements land. picture of how these trade projections translate into borders and common languages among other. freight movements four additional layers are built things as explanatory variables for trade between. into the model First trade flows are disaggregated different countries for each commodity Economic. into production and consumption centres around the profile variables are also included to describe trade. world representing pair wise trade flows between relations between countries with different production. nearly 300 such centroids Second a mode choice sophistication and intensity of trade. Value to weight,conversion Global transport,network ITF. Freight Projections, In tonne kilometre All ports train stations routes Assigment. By origin destination pair Links between modes of freight volume. Dwelling times to routes by transport modes,freight volumes. Finally the resulting trade by mode in tonnes of of production or consumption to or from ports. goods moved by product group is assigned to are a significant element of international freight. a global freight transport network model This However this domestic share of international trade. consolidates all freight networks in the world based related freight is not accounted for in previous. on open GIS data It includes all world highways and global freight models Linking the information on. main roads rail stations and networks sea ports global production and consumption centres with. and actual routes as well as airports and commercial the global freight network model enables the ITF. flights in a routable intermodal network connecting International Freight Model to estimate the domestic. all production and consumption centres around the share of international freight for a country providing. world Each seaport and airport is connected to road insights into how an important segment of the. and rail networks with intermodal dwelling times freight journey can be shaped by domestic transport. reflecting the multimodal nature of most freight policies. journeys The model also includes differentiated,speed for each link and border crossing times. For the first time the ITF International Freight, Model allows the calculation of the domestic share.
of international trade and the CO2 emissions,associated with it Contrary to common modeling. approaches trade does not stop at ports Goods,transported by road or rail from or to centres. The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade OECD ITF 2015 5. More freight more CO2, International trade related freight and associated emissions by corridor. North America,North Atlantic,North Pacific,South America. Freight Volumes CO2 Emissions,billion tonne km million tonnes.
South Atlantic,Europe Asia,0 2050 Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. 2010 2050 406,South Pacific,Indian Ocean, The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade OECD ITF 2015 7. The insights,How shifting trade patterns increase,freight volumes and CO2. The elasticity of world trade to world GDP has fallen Distances on the traditional routes between developed. since the start of the economic crisis in 2008 and economies will grow relatively slowly whereas the. world trade growth has been slower than before The hauling distances in the trade corridors connecting. lower responsiveness of trade to GDP reflects partly emerging economies lengthen nearly 20 on average. the sluggishness of GDP but also structural shifts In terms of freight volumes the North Pacific route will. especially a slowing down in the global value chains surpass the North Atlantic as the main freight corridor. fragmentation and increases in the domestic value by 2050 reflecting an increasing flow of goods. added component in the exports of low and middle between North America and Asia. income economies The underlying trade projections, up to 2050 assume that GDP will grow on average Growth in trade will result in significant emission. around 3 per year with declining rates in many growth unless action is taken Even assuming. countries Growth in trade is expected to continue to technological development and efficiency. outpace GDP growth with world trade estimated to improvements over the next three and a half. grow at around 3 5 annually compared to 6 9 decades CO2 emissions from international trade. over the period 1990 2007 related freight transport will grow by 290 to 2050. in the baseline scenario i e to nearly three times. Still global trade is projected to grow by a factor today s level Although the vast majority 85 of. of 4 1 from 2010 to 2050 in constant value The tonne kilometers when including the domestic link. weight of trade in tonnes of goods moved will grow of international trade of international merchandised. less by a factor of 3 8 reflecting changes in the trade is carried by sea maritime transport generates. product composition of the world trade and more relatively low CO2 emissions per tonne kilometre of. specifically the fact that countries are moving up in goods transported compared with road and air. the value chain producing more high value goods,Carbon intensive trucking.
While freight weight will grow slower than the trade. value world freight volumes will increase more Indeed road transport is the main CO2 emitter in. strongly over the same period by a factor of 4 3 international trade related transport due to its high. measured in tonne kilometres in the baseline emission intensity per tonne kilometer compared. scenario This illustrates the geographical shift of with other modes producing over half of all trade. trade patterns as a result of the unequal distribution related freight emissions Road freight share of total. of income across world regions and changes in international trade related emissions will grow from. consumption structures and in relative produtivity 53 in 2010 to 56 by 2050 Over the same period. The baseline trade scenario projects that trade within air transport will see an increase of 2 percentage. the OECD economies will halve its share from 47 to points from 7 to 9 according to ITF projections. 25 of global trade while trade between non OECD The CO2 share of maritime freight on the other hand. economies will more than double from 15 to 33 is estimated to fall from 37 to 32 over the same. period while that of rail freight should remain stable. Longer supply chains at about 3, The above changes in the direction of trade will also There are three main contributors to the increased. result in shifts in the geographical composition of CO2 emissions and shifting emissions shares First. freight movement notably from the North Atlantic in addition to growth in the volume of trade the. freight corridor to the Indian Ocean and North Pacific growth in the average hauling distance will also mean. corridors This increases the distance between trading that goods need to be moved over longer distances. partners resulting in longer supply chains than ever between main trading partners resulting in more. before Average hauling distance will grow by 12 fuel burn The largest increases in CO2 emissions. from 2010 to 2050 under the baseline scenario in absolute terms will be registered in Asia and on. the North Pacific corridor while relative growth is are projected to increase by 240 in the baseline. strongest in Africa 689 scenario International trade related aviation. emissions are projected to grow even stronger over. Second intra Asian and intra African freight flows will the same period albeit their contribution to total. grow significantly This will lead to increasing trade emissions is small. volumes being moved by more carbon intensive Because of the international nature of shipping and. road transport as alternative transport infrastructure aviation their emissions are not part of the current. is currently less well developed in these regions negotiations under the aegis of the United Nations. than elsewhere Third air freight has a competitive Framework Climate Change Convention UNFCCC. advantage for carrying high value goods and as Instead they are dealt with in the context of the. countries export increasingly sophisticated products International Maritime Organisation IMO and. this will increase the share of air cargo and emissions International Civil Aviation Organisation ICAO. from aviation both specialised agencies of the United Nations In. the IMO countries have reached agreements on, Impact of trade liberalisation improving fuel efficiency of ships mainly through. ship design and efficiency standards known as, What would be the impact of future trade Energy Efficiency Design Index EEDI and Ship. liberalisation on freight volumes and CO2 emissions Energy Efficiency Management Plan SEEMP. In a multilateral trade liberalisation scenario, trade growth is re oriented towards the non OECD Together these measures could reduce shipping. area reflecting comparatively larger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 180 Mt annually by. tariffs than in OECD countries as well as stronger 2020 No agreement has been reached to develop a. underlying economic growth in this area market based or pricing mechanism for shipping For. aviation ICAO is currently exploring a multilateral. The implementation of a multilateral trade market based solution for aviation emissions about. liberalisation regime would push CO2 emissions from which the next general assembly in 2016 is expected. trade related freight transport to 15 above the to take a decision and discuss implementation. business as usual baseline scenario by 2050 Under,this s.
up to 2050 under alternative trade liberalisation scenarios The model expresses future trade in value and volume in USD tonnes and tonne kilometers and assigns freight volumes to actual routes by transport mode thus also enabling the calculation of related CO 2 emissions The starting point of the ITF model is OECD projections for international trade at the level of 26 regions and 19

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