New passenger vehicle fuel consumption trends 1979 to 2013

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utility vehicle SUV category Between 2001 and 2013 passenger cars have decreased their share from 72 to. 52 per cent SUVs have increased from 15 to 29 per cent and the light commercial vehicle LCV share has. grown from 13 to 19 per cent, Figure 1 illustrates the new light vehicle sales in Australia since 1979 showing total sales and subtotals for the. various light vehicle categories, Figure 1 New light vehicle sales in Australia 1979 2013. Notes Includes sales of all light motor vehicles all 4 wheeled road vehicles with a gross vehicle mass under 3 5 tonnes divided here into. subtotals for the categories of Cars All Terrain Wagons or Sports Utility Vehicles SUVs and Light Commercial Vehicles LCVs. such as utilities and panel vans, Sources Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries FCAI VFACTS various issues BTRE 2002 BITRE 2009 and BITRE estimates. Average fuel consumption rates for new vehicle sales. The BITRE New Passenger Vehicle Database records fuel consumption rates over various city and highway. laboratory test cycles as reported over time by the Green Vehicle Guide or Glass s Research Data. Historically National Average Fuel Consumption NAFC values were calculated for new vehicle sales using. combined city highway fuel and emission test cycle results over the standard United States Federal Test. Procedure USFTP weighted by sales volumes These test cycle results which applied to Australian vehicle. design standards up until around 2002 were combined by a weighting of 55 per cent city and 45 per cent. highway fuel consumption rate values, Note that these weighted test cycle values standard laboratory or dynamometer test results over the. specified USFTP cycles with NAFC weighted at the 55 45 ratio for the city highway tests tend to be at least. 20 per cent lower than actual average on road fuel consumption. After 2002 regulatory test values for fuel economy and CO2 emissions of new passenger vehicles in. Australia generally involve combined test results over the New European Driving Cycle NEDC 3 This. more recently adopted test consists of an urban phase or cycle lasting 13 minutes which attempts to. represent conditions found in stop start traffic and an extra urban driving cycle lasting 6 minutes 40. seconds which involves the vehicle accelerating to a high peak speed 4 The weighting of the urban and. extra urban results to determine the full combined test result is based on the simulated distances for these. two phases of the overall cycle, The Green Vehicle Guide currently reports fuel consumption values in litres of fuel consumed per 100.
kilometres driven L 100km tested over the NEDC See Figure 2a for a demonstration of how average fuel. consumption rates calculated using the more recent combined cycle results over the NEDC test are. considerably higher than for the previous NAFC trend with tests performed over the older USFTP. combined cycle, Figure 2a Rated National Average Fuel Consumption by Australian new light vehicles. over different test cycles,sales weighted average L 100km. NAFC USFTP 55 45 cycle result,Combined average testing under current. Australian design standards NEDC test, Note Values relate to average rated fuel consumption sales weighted tested over a USFTP cycle with NAFC value equal to 55 urban. result and 45 highway result where average on road consumption is typically at least 20 higher and b over NEDC test which. generally gives results more comparable to actual on road performance. Sources BITRE estimates Green Vehicle Guide Glass s Research Data. The NEDC test is specified in United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNECE regulations setting out procedures for determining. fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from light vehicles The NEDC is a driving cycle that attempts to better represent typical on road driving. conditions than previous regulatory test cycles Though tests over the NEDC are generally closer to real world results than for the USFTP. cycle they will still typically underestimate on road levels and research into test cycles that give even more realistic representations of actual. average driving conditions are on going, Vehicles generally have considerably higher fuel consumption over the urban phase of the test cycle which features a low average speed 19.
km hr substantial idle periods and frequent stop start events compared to the extra urban component which has a relatively high average. speed 63 km hr and a peak speed of 120 km hr even though it is not a typical highway cycle since it does not maintain a relatively constant. speed over an extended period of time, Note that even though these higher NEDC combined test values are considerably closer to achieving real. world driving results they are still typically lower than the average L 100km levels most drivers will get in. actual traffic It appears that up until recent years most cars would be expected to average around 2 4 per. cent higher on road than their rated NEDC test result or about 19 22 per cent higher than a. corresponding rated result over the USFTP 55 45 cycle test result There is some evidence that this gap has. widened over time particularly amongst recent European models makes see ICCT 2012 2014 with the. divergence between fuel consumption for combined NEDC test results and actual average Australian. driving possibly more like 5 10 per cent for some newer models with an equivalent widening for any derived. NAFC USFTP L 100km estimates based on such NEDC type approval results. For some summary values of typical variations between fuel consumption results over the two. tests procedures for different phases of the combined USFTP cycle and the combined NEDC UNECE. standard see Figure 9 of Information Sheet 30 BITRE 2009 This comparison chart demonstrates that the. newer combined test NEDC UNECE tends to give results approximately equal to the older USFTP test s. city component, In order to present on going time series for average fuel intensity across the new fleet the NAFC L 100km. values derived for previous years from the BITRE New Passenger Vehicle Database lower curve in Figure. 2a using test results over the USFTP 55 45 city highway cycles have been continued over recent years using. a proportional scaling of the Database s averaged NEDC values combined cycle results upper curve in. Figure 2b Rated National Average Fuel Consumption by Australian new light vehicles. by type of vehicle 1979 2013,Average Litres per 100 kilometres sales weighted. Total Light Vehicles, Note Values relate to average rated fuel consumption sales weighted i e up to about 2002 tested over USFTP cycle with NAFC value. equal to 55 urban result and 45 highway result where average on road consumption is typically at least 20 higher and scaled. since then using trend results over the NEDC test, Sources BITRE estimates Green Vehicle Guide Glass s Research Data.
Figure 2b shows the resulting estimates of sales weighted NAFC trends for the various light vehicle. categories since 1979 Average rated fuel intensity across total light vehicle sales has declined by close to 1. per cent per annum over the last three decades5, Overall new passenger cars have continued a downward trend in rated fuel consumption with a somewhat. steeper downward trend after about 2004 Similarly SUV rated fuel intensities have declined noticeably. possibly due to the emergence and popularity of the compact and medium SUVs The LCV category. although somewhat volatile was relatively flat to 2007 but since 2008 has joined in the downward trend. Note that a possible widening over recent years of the gap between rated L 100km measured by test. cycles and average on road consumption levels means that perhaps not the full extent of the displayed rated. decreases will be obtained during actual real world driving. Part of the derived NAFC L 100km levels and their overall declines shown in Figure 2b are in fact due to. how these particular values are calculated that is by purely summing across all vehicle makes without. separating vehicle models by fuel type Relatively few new vehicles are currently fuelled by other than petrol. automotive gasoline or diesel automotive diesel oil with less than half a per cent of 2013 new light. vehicle sales due to LPG or electric vehicles Yet the substantial numbers of new light diesel vehicles sold. annually which have grown from a share of about 8 per cent of 2002 sales to about 31 per cent by 2013. can have a significant impact on averages across fuel consumption values particularly for the SUV and LCV. categories, Figure 2c Rated National Average Fuel Consumption by Australian new light vehicles. with adjustments for fuel energy content 1979 2013. sales weighted L 100km for total light vehicles,Rated NAFC simple average over combined. USFTP scaled NEDC test results for L 100km,gasoline equivalent L 100km. Note Values relate to average rated fuel consumption sales weighted across all fuel types i e up to about 2002 tested over USFTP cycle. with NAFC value equal to 55 urban result and 45 highway result and scaled since then using trend results over the NEDC test. Gasoline equivalent L 100km averages have been adjusted to allow for the higher energy content per litre of diesel over petrol. Sources BITRE estimates FCAI VFACTS Green Vehicle Guide Glass s Research Data. Note that even though the curves in Figure 2b are useful for exhibiting rough overall trends the changes to the regulatory cycle tests along. with other fleet characteristics altering over time such as the increasing penetration of light diesel vehicle sales where diesel has a higher. energy content per litre than gasoline and the afore mentioned possibility of the gap between test results and on road consumption widening. over recent years complicate making precise comparisons of new vehicle fuel efficiency over the decades. Diesel has a higher energy density Joules per litre than petrol so in energy consumption terms L 100km. for a diesel vehicle is not directly comparable with L 100km for a petrol vehicle where estimation of CO2. emission rates is also impacted by this issue since the carbon content of diesel is also higher than petrol. Figure 2c shows how values calculated for average fleet fuel consumption rates can alter if this energy. content difference is taken into account where the Total light vehicles trend from Figure 2b calculated by a. simple average of tested L 100km across all makes irrespective of fuel type is contrasted with estimated. gasoline equivalent L 100km of the new light fleet i e where the tested L 100km values for diesel vehicles. in the USFTP sales weighted summation have been scaled by the proportional difference in the unit energy. contents of diesel and petrol In such gasoline equivalent terms the fuel consumption average across the. new light fleet is noticeably higher especially from about 2002 onwards. Besides fuel type variations the other main factor complicating trend analyses over time in fleet fuel. consumption performance is the difference between test results as plotted in Figures 2a 2c and actual on. road L 100km The typical size of this gap is only roughly quantified and as mentioned above the size of the. divergence has possibly been growing over recent years see ICCT 2012 2014 6. Figure 2d Average fuel consumption of Australian new light vehicles. comparison of test cycle results with on road estimates 1979 2013. Average L 100km,Rated NAFC simple average over combined.
USFTP scaled NEDC test results for L 100km,Rated L 100km simple average over. combined NEDC test results,gasoline equivalent L 100km average. estimated on road levels, Notes Sales weighted values for rated fuel consumption refer to dynamometer tests over USFTP cycle 55 urban and 45 highway. results and over NEDC test combined urban and extra urban cycle results. Estimates of actual on road fuel performance in terms of gasoline equivalent L 100km are based on BITRE vehicle fleet modelling. where error bars provide an indication of possible uncertainty in the level determination. Sources BITRE estimates BITRE 2010 Green Vehicle Guide Glass s Research Data. For some discussion around various factors that can contribute to this possibly expanding gap between standard type approval cycle test. results and actual on road fleet performance and the probable magnitude of such divergences experienced for European vehicle sales over. the last decade or so see TNO 2012, Figure 2d displays a comparison of the rated L 100km estimates for new light vehicle sales for the NAFC. USFTP based series i e blue trend line from Figures 2c and 2b and the higher NEDC test results pink. trend line from Figure 2a with values derived from BITRE fleet modelling using the trend series in new. sales volumes and their rated fuel intensity coupled with data on total fuel sales for probable on road. consumption levels The upper green trend line gives average gasoline equivalent L 100km estimates for the. on road performance of new light vehicles cars SUVs and LCVs where error bars on the estimated trend. are provided to give an indication of the likely uncertainty in these values noting that the spread of the error. margin expands somewhat over recent years due to various factors discussed in ICCT 2014 and TNO. 2012 that can lead to the gap widening between type approval cycle test results and actual on road fuel. consumption, Figure 3 shows the degree for the Australian light vehicle market of a roughly inverse relationship between.
fuel consumption choices and fuel prices by plotting smoothed annual percentage declines in the estimated. New passenger vehicle fuel consumption trends 1979 to 2013 1 1 At a glance The Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics BITRE has examined long term trends in the fuel consumption of new passenger vehicles1 sold in Australia Up to 2005 advances in engine technology which improved fuel efficiency were somewhat offset by increases in power weight and the popularity of

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