Livestock in FAO Global Agriculture Perspectives System

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Global Perspectives Studies at FAO Publications,Corporate reports on key issues. l E g report on The future of food and agriculture Trends and challenges 2017. World Agriculture towards 20XX, l long term projections of agriculture food security and natural resource use Last. baseline projection until 2050 AT2050 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012. Upcoming report, The future of food and agriculture Alternative pathways to 2050. Global Agriculture Perspectives System GAPS, Partial equilibrium model for agricultural commodities. Replicates the AT2050 projections for 110 countries and 34 commodities. Strongly influenced by IMPACT regarding equations and deep parameters. Base year 2005 07,Implemented in GAMS, For upcoming report Extension and Upgrade to GAPS v2.
Build around 2011 2013 FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets FBS and Productions Statistics. GAEZ v4 for climate change impacts on land and water resources and crop yields. GLEAM for feed requirements herd dynamics and proportions of animal production. systems 4 ruminant species in 4 herds and production systems 2 monogastric species. in 3 systems,UN DESA World Population Prospects 2015. OECD Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for income projections. 154 countries and 68 commodities,GAPS Basic structure. GAPS Livestock module,Livestock activities Livestock activities. Feed use commodity 1 S,Aggregation,Total feed,Aggregate feed bundle Feed use commodity 2 S. Feed use commodity S,Feed bundle,f bundle price herd size parameters.
Commodities,Primary supply animal,Herd size Animal product 1 S. Animal make Animal product 2 S,share of producing,animals yields. Animal product S,GAPS Herd size,Number of animals,waPP waPFEED. herd a l t la l t PPa l t l t,PFEEDa l t l t, With a species l herd x system l shift parameter PP Producer price. PFEED Aggregate feed price,GAPS solves for prices to clear markets in time t.
Shift parameters refer to price independent growth of herds. Derivation of shifters example large ruminants,in SSA only population and income shifts. Including Expert Opinions E g Herd size,Stylized expert statements. That s not possible too high too low, Until 2030 countries will push towards achieving SDGs get funding too. Climate change will cause losses of pasture land will become visible after 2030. Beyond 2050 population growth slows down and pressure on herd sizes declines a bit. GAPS Feed demand,CES Aggregation s a l,s a l 1 s 1. bundlea l b a l i feed a l i, With a species l herd x system b share parameter s substitution elasticity.
First order condition for cost minimization,s 1 PFEEDa l. feed a l i bundlea l b a l i a l,With pbundle bundle price pfeed feed market price. Feed demand levels by herds and systems and share parameters b obtained. from GLEAM feed coefficients, Precondition align feed uses from FBS herd sizes from production statistics and. GLEAM coefficients,GLEAM2GAPS Database challenges,Comparability of databases. follows its own classification of animal feeds, feed coefficients expressed in maximum intake dry matter base.
Includes traded e g maize and non traded e g grass feeds. is built on FAOSTAT food balance sheets and production statistics. market balances expressed in primary equivalents except oilseeds. no distinction of feed destinations herds or systems only one column per. country and year, Does not include roughages or other non traded feeds. Without additional information feed balances cannot be completed. Pasture rangeland requirements calculated post solve as plausibility check. GLEAM feeds e g grains and products,FeedItemCode FeedItemName. GRAINS Grains from wheat Triticum spp barley Hordeum vulgare sorghum Sorghum spp rye Secale cereale or oat Avena sativa plants. GRNBYDRY Dry by products of grain industries such as brans middlings etc. GRNBYWET Wet by products of grain industries such as biofuels distilleries breweries etc. WHEATS Grains from wheat Triticum aestivum,WHEATN Grains from wheat Triticum aestivum. BARLEY Grains from barley Hordeum vulgare, MILLET Grains from millet P glaucum E coracana P miliaceum. RICE Grains from rice Oryza sp,SORGHUM Grains from sorghum Sorghum sp.
CWHEAT Grains from wheat Triticum aestivum,CBARLEY Grains from barley Hordeum vulgare. CMILLET Grains from millet P glaucum E coracana P miliaceum. CRICE Grains from rice Oryza sp,CSORGHUM Grains from sorghum Sorghum sp. CGRNBYDRY Dry by products of grain industries such as brans middlings etc. CORN Grains from maize Zea mays plant, MZGLTM By product from maize processing It is a protein rich feed with about 65 crude protein content. MZGLTF By product from maize processing Unlike the gluten meal its protein content is lower of about 25 crude protein content. MAIZES Grains from maize Zea mays,MAIZEN Grains from maize Zea mays. CMAIZE Grains from maize Zea mays,GAPS and FBS commodities e g grains and products.
FBSName FBSCode GAPSCode,Wheat and products 2511 C WHEA. Barley and products 2513 C BARL,Maize and products 2514 C MAIZ. Rye and products 2515 C XCER,Oats 2516 C XCER,Millet and products 2517 C MILL. Sorghum and products 2518 C SORG,Cereals Other 2520 C XCER. Comparability of GLEAM and GAPS databases, Categories for feed commodities do not allow direct 1 to 1 mapping.
Comparability is a bit better for oilseed cakes worse for other tradables and. processed feeds,Need to create an intermediate grouping. some trial,comparisons,to obtain a procedure for data integration. Determine feed groups ig with many to 1 correspondence to GAPS. commodities i as well as GLEAM feeds g, General criterion for ig Low substitutability between groups high. substitutability within groups, Compute shares of herds by productions systems within each group ig. shareh s ig g h s g herd h s g h s g herd h s,g ig h s g ig.
With g GLEAM maxinitake,Distribute FBS feed uses by shares. feed h s i ig tfeediFBS shareh s ig,With tfeed Total feed uses. Combined feed uses GLEAM vs GAPS high,aggregation average DM content. Livestock in FAO Global Agriculture Perspectives System GAPS brief history current work and next steps Marc M ller FAO Global Perspectives Studies GPS team Livestock Modelling Workshop GLW GLEAM GAPS IMPACT Integration 22 24 May 2018 FAO Rome Global Perspectives Studies at FAO Publications Corporate reports on key issues l E g report on The future of food and

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