Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm

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MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH,November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. Contributors to this Report,Autos Auto Related, Ravi Shanker1 1 212 761 6350 Ravi Shanker morganstanley com. Adam Jonas1 1 212 761 1726 Adam Jonas morganstanley com. Paresh Jain1 1 212 761 3354 Paresh Jain morganstanley com. Yejay Ying1 1 212 761 7096 Yejay Ying morganstanley com. Scott Devitt1 1 212 761 3365 Scott Devitt morganstanley com. Jordan Monahan1 1 212 761 8094 Jordan Monahan morganstanley com. IT Hardware, Katy L Huberty 1 1 212 761 6249 Kathryn Huberty morganstanley com. Scott Schmitz1 1 617 856 8074 Scott Schmitz morganstanley com. Telecom Services, Simon Flannery1 1 212 761 6432 Simon Flannery morganstanley com. John Mark Warren1 1 212 761 0430 John M Warren morganstanley com. Freight Transportation, William Greene1 212 761 8017 William Greene morganstanley com.
Benjamin Swinburne1 212 761 7527 Benjamin Swinburne morganstanley com. Ryan Fiftal1 212 761 3005 Ryan Fiftal morganstanley com. Gregory Locraft1 1 617 856 8753 Gregory Locraft morganstanley com. Kai Pan1 1 212 761 8711 Kai Pan morganstanley com,Technology Software Services Europe. Adam Wood2 44 20 7425 4450 Adam Wood morganstanley com. Andrew Humphrey2 44 20 7425 2630 Andrew Humphrey morganstanley com. Keith Weiss1 1 212 761 4149 Keith Weiss morganstanley com. Semiconductors, Joseph Moore1 212 761 7516 Joseph Moore morganstanley com. Vasanth Mohan1 212 761 7688 Vasanth Mohan morganstanley com. Healthcare Facilities, Andrew Schenker1 212 761 6857 Andrew Schenker morganstanley com. Cornelia Miller1 212 761 3809 Cornelia Miller morganstanley com. Auto Parts Japan, Shinji Kakiuchi3 81 3 5425 5914 Shinji Kakiuchi morganstanleymufg com. Autos Japan, Ryosuke Hoshino3 81 3 5424 5916 Ryusuke Hoshino morganstanleymufg com.
We would like to acknowledge the contribution of our intern Brian Yun to this Blue Paper. 1 Morgan Stanley Co LLC,2 Morgan Stanley Co International plc. 3 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co Ltd,See page 101 for recent Blue Paper reports. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH,November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. O R G A Nof,S TContents,ANLEY BLUE PAPER,Autonomous Cars The Basics 5. Which Technology Wins 23,Regional Differences 31,Timeline for Adoption 37.
Quantifying the Economic Benefits 45,Next Steps 53. Government 55,Auto Insurance 57,Telecom Services 59. The New Auto Industry Revenue Model 65,Lessons from the Technology Hardware Industry 73. Global Auto Company Implications 77,Read Across to Other Industries 81. How Autos View Google 83,Freight Transport 85,Semiconductors 92.
Software 96,Car Rentals 98,Healthcare 99,MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH. November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH,November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. MORGAN STANLEY BLUE PAPER,Autonomous Vehicles,Autonomous Cars The Basics. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH,November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm.
Executive Summary, A few decades from now a child from today will hardly believe this topic struggles to get respect even today Broaching the. that people used to drive vehicles manually The march concept as something real is still met with eye rolling and. toward autonomous vehicles or self driving cars is well deep skepticism even among people within the auto industry. underway and though it may be a few years until we get there who are actively working on autonomous car technology It is. the destination may be closer than most people think It also true that there has been a significant amount of print media. means that as a society we need to start now to fathom the devoted to the topic recently but we believe there has been. enormous implications of this transition so that we are ready little serious dialogue Even starting work on this Blue Paper. for it when it comes drew a lot of debate within our own teams as to whether this. was a topic of relevance in terms of size of the impact the. Over the course of several months we held intense brain timing of potential realization and the ability to generate. storming sessions and interviewed futurists and top actionable investment implications. executives within the auto industry and potential disruptors. outside the industry to develop a vision of what a future with However it is now clear to us that not only are autonomous. autonomous cars will look like The result is this Blue Paper a cars real but they are likely to come around sooner than most. collaborative effort across ten global research teams at people think With US drivers driving 75 billion hours a year. Morgan Stanley Research autonomous cars are also poised to have a much greater. impact on society as a whole than most people give them. This Blue Paper is not meant to be a comprehensive list of credit for. every advantage and disadvantage use of and obstacle to. adoption of autonomous vehicles That already has been well Getting the cars to drive themselves may be the. covered in other places and we may write on such topics in easiest part. more detail in future follow up reports, Why are we so convinced when even people closest to the. technology within the auto industry sound so deeply. Rather than focus on the topic of what is an autonomous. skeptical Simply because the uncertainty around timelines of. vehicle we have instead focused on areas that have not. adoption for most new technologies in the auto industry is. been addressed so far We have attempted to lay out a. largely due to having to solve complex technological. timeline for adoption determine what the global implications. problems That is not the case for autonomous vehicles the. might be quantify the socio economic benefits and most. technology to make a self driving car happen is largely. importantly examine the investment implications of. available today and only incremental R D is required mostly. autonomous vehicles We have attempted to make a practical. in the area of testing durability reliability and cost reduction. case for the adoption of autonomous vehicles and present. all of which have largely visible paths This is one of the few. solutions to the most pressing concerns obstacles with the. areas where there is agreement across the auto industry the. goal of sparking the debate about whether we need to be. futurists and adjacent market players,preparing for the future starting now. Basic autonomous capability is available in cars today with. We prefer to use the term autonomous car rather than self. semi autonomous capability coming in 12 18 months and full. driving car or driverless car in this report because we. autonomous capability which exists in prototype form today. believe the term autonomous best conveys the amount of. on the path to commercialization by the end of the decade. technology and engineering that goes into making this system. The technology to make it happen is not a stretch and neither. work It also avoids the negative images of rogue self aware. is the cost premium We estimate full autonomous capability. vehicles that the term self driving or driverless can imply. will add only about 10 000 to the cost of a car at today s. prices which we expect will fall significantly by the time the. Autonomous cars are real and will be ready for, technology is ready to be commercialized In fact we believe. prime time sooner than you think, autonomous vehicle technology is a smaller leap than full.
In any discussion of cars mention the terms autonomous or electric vehicles which still need unknown battery. self driving and most people conjure up images of science breakthroughs in a lab or significant macro disruption to make. fiction movies or television shows like Knight Rider and them viable beyond being niche vehicles. Batman The idea of a driverless car is still so fantastical that. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH,November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. It won t happen because it s too hard We strongly believe that autonomous vehicles cannot be. limited to developed markets alone if they are to become the. Rather than the technology itself we believe most of the. fundamental business model shift we envision The OEMs. concerns or obstacles to mass adoption of autonomous. recent move to common platforms and the need to sell similar. vehicles are largely practical or procedural in nature What s. cars across all markets will ultimately mean that cars will. more these issues appear relatively easy to solve and we either be autonomous everywhere or nowhere especially. have suggested our own likely solutions to a number of the given the vast changes in the design and engineering of a. most pressing issues vehicle that are required to give it autonomous capability In. this Blue Paper we discuss many of the obstacles that. The main barrier to autonomous vehicle growth is the autonomous vehicles in emerging markets face and explain. question of liability who is responsible in the event of an why we believe not only that none of them are deal breakers. autonomous vehicle crash the occupants the OEM the but also that there are many EM specific reasons why. supplier or someone else We do not see this as an autonomous vehicles will actually work better in those. insurmountable issue in fact we believe the solutions are markets. relatively straightforward We talk about all states in the US. going to no fault to eliminate the need to answer the above Your time starts now. question in the first place and believe the economics of. insurance can support the liability in the event of a crash We We see five phases in the autonomous vehicle adoption. note that the liability issue has often been presented as a deal curve starting with basic active safety capability today and. breaker ahead of most of the biggest technological leaps ending at a utopian world in which every car on the road will. taken by mankind but that has not stopped us from flying on be autonomous While this utopia looks to be a couple of. airplanes or building an electric grid or indeed inventing the decades out we envision a scenario in which mass adoption. automobile in the first place Other potential obstacles often and full penetration could come much more quickly if the. mentioned include gaining customer acceptance building need to achieve the socio economic benefits of autonomous. sufficient infrastructure government regulation and ethical cars compels the industry and governments to force the. issues adoption of the technology And the socio economic benefits. are indeed significant, We believe the potential socio economic benefits of. autonomous cars are so great that most of the practical Not just about making the world a better place. issues will be quickly solved to clear the path to their Autonomous cars bring obvious social benefits fewer if any. implementation There will be offsetting unfavorable impacts road accidents reduced traffic congestion higher occupant. as well for example whether we will need as many EMTs productivity fuel savings and many many more However. paramedics and law enforcement officers if there are no while the social benefits may be nice autonomous vehicles. accidents However as with other innovations in the history need to generate a real economic return for both the. of mankind we believe society must and will adapt consumers paying for the technology as well as the. industry governments that will invest billions of dollars in. Global or bust developing it Happily though the economic benefits of these. One of the potential obstacles to the success of autonomous social gains promise to be great We have made a high level. vehicles that does not come up often enough in our opinion attempt to quantify these gains we believe the US economy. is whether it can succeed in emerging markets or be limited to can save 1 3 trillion per year once autonomous cars. developed markets only Almost every stakeholder we have become fully penetrated To put that number in context it. spoken to seems to believe that if autonomous vehicles were represents 8 of US GDP Extrapolating these savings to a. to achieve significant penetration at all it will only be in global level by applying the ratio of US savings US GDP to. developed markets given the additional challenges facing the global GDP we estimate global savings from autonomous. technology in emerging markets on top of the challenges vehicles to be in the region of 5 6 trillion per year We. faced in developed markets believe the promise of achieving this level of savings will. compel the penetration of autonomous capability in vehicles. at a pace quicker than natural demand pull,MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH. November 6 2013, Autonomous Cars Self Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm. Adoption Timeline,Phase 4 two decades,100 autonomous.
penetration utopian,Phase 3 2018 to 2022,Complete autonomous. capability,Phase 2 2015 to 2019,Limited driver,substitution. Phase 1 now to 2016,Passive autonomous,Technology,Penetration. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026. Source Company Data Morgan Stanley Research,MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH. deep skepticism even among people within the auto industry who are actively working on autonomous car technology It is true that there has been a significant amount of print media devoted to the topic recently but we believe there has been little serious dialogue Even starting work on this Blue Paper

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